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How To Evaluate Profitable Bets

Knowing the profitability of your sports bets is one of the most critical activities that any serious bettor should do. It is not just about knowing if we earn more or less money. It is about quantifying the real performance of the resources we have invested. )ne way to evaluate profitable bets is by evaluating the yield or percentage yield and thus distinguishing our profitable betting streaks from those that are not.

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Investment, Profit, and Yield

The yield relates to investment and benefits of our bets, and with the yield we could:

  • know how good bettors we are
  • track our progress
  • identify good and bad streaks, and
  • compare the results of other tipsters with full guarantees

This method can be much more interesting and robust than simply monitoring the hit rate. As we will discuss, the hit rate could be easily manipulated, yield seemingly excellent results, and lose money!

In the article, we will see how one may detect these cheats and choose tipsters in respect to winning bets. At least in its past and published operations.

And do not forget that  one of the ways to get a good return on betting is to pocket the welcome bonuses of the bookmakers (even if you’re betting on college football odds).

What Is Yield And How To Calculate It

The yield is the relationship between the profit obtained in a set of operations and the money we have bet. It is usually calculated as a percentage:

  • Yield % = 100 x (Profit / Total Money Invested)

The yield of a single operation can be calculated. However, the usual thing is to group it by periods to filter the individual operations’ variability. The most serious bettors usually evaluate their monthly, annual, and accumulated yield since the activity began.

Interpretation and References

A good yield for a recreational bettor can be estimated at 4-5% values. Although it seems little, it is actually a lot: with these returns, you may double your money every 20 operations. If you can consistently exceed that figure year after year, you could be in for a treat.

Normally, the yield tends to have a lot of variabilities, some months with generous gains and others with losses. TIt is important to look at the trend and calculate moving averages of 5 to 10 times the average odds that we bet on.

Yield: Calculation and Trends

Evaluating Yield could make it easier for us to find trends in our strategies and correct our methods of forecasting and calculating stakes.

For example, if we bet with an average odds of 2, it would be advisable to average between 10 and 20 operations. If we bet with average odds of 5, we would have to average between 25 and 50.

Using more operations could  give us a more constant value with less variability. And for the purest of statistics, it is usually better to use the median of the odds instead of the average to decide the period of the calculation window.

However, using more samples could slow down the response. This may make it challenging to detect trend changes in our operations and identify if our systems are ineffective.

As we discussed the stake in betting, one of the main concerns of the bettor and the investor, in general, must be the preservation of the capital of it. In times of losing streaks, we should reduce the amount of money we play, review our sports betting strategies, and readjust our forecast estimation procedures.

Yield vs. Hit Rate

Some bettors and tipsters publish and follow other types of statistics, such as hit rates and average odds at which they bet. The hit rate consists of calculating the percentage of bets won between the total bets placed.

Obviously, this method has the problem that we can -and should- be using different stakes in different bets, with which we attribute the same weight in the calculation to bets with different risks.

On the other hand, average odds can be manipulated very easily. Let’s imagine that a tipster reports the following statistics:

  • 80% successful bets
  • Average odds: 2.08

A priori, we will think that this bettor is a true genius. Someone who hits 80% of his bets when the implied probability of an odd of 2.08 is less than 50% seems like a genius who finds extraordinary value in his bets.

The beautiful appearance of these numbers can hide an unpleasant reality.

How To Identify The Best Tipsters

We conveniently use the yield criterion when evaluating our benefits over time. And much more if you want to know how good a tipster is if you are thinking of following one. Do not get carried away by other types of misleading statistics.

In principle, the more bets the statistics reflect, the more reliable the comparisons will be. However, to be rigorous, it would be necessary to analyze the complete history and check quotas, stakes, and benefits. Only then will you have a better idea of ​​the reliability of the tipster.


A positive and consistent yield characterizes a good tipster.

Without wanting to go into complex mathematical analyses, similar bets are not needed to have reliable results. A good tipster must have a good track record and should be judged by the number of winnings over losses in many completed bets.

In summary, the tipster must demonstrate a positive and consistent yield over time.

The published material expresses the position of the author, which may not coincide with the opinion of the editor.

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